On May 27, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has his 'COMPLETE and TOTAL Endorsement' for re-election on June 7. He called him a great friend and leader, said Pashinyan completely shares his vision of peace and prosperity, and announced they would soon break ground together on the 'Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity' — an energy corridor through Armenia giving American companies access from Central Asia to the United States. The post ended with 'Make Armenia Great Again — MAGA.'

Armenia has not been great again in the way Trump means. It lost Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and again in 2023, when Azerbaijan retook the enclave in 24 hours and 100,000 Armenians fled in a single day. Its borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan remain closed. It is landlocked, small and almost entirely dependent on Russia for its gas, oil and rough diamonds at below-market prices. Up to half a million Armenian citizens live and work in Russia. Pashinyan has spent eight years since his Velvet Revolution trying to loosen that dependence. He diversified Armenia's military procurement away from Russia through contracts with India, France and other partners, froze Armenian membership of Moscow's CSTO military alliance in 2024 and signed a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan at the White House last August. He is, by any measure, the most genuinely pro-Western leader Armenia has ever had.

Russia's response has been methodical and escalating. Since Trump's endorsement, Moscow has banned Armenian produce imports, threatened gas price hikes, warned of suspension from the Eurasian Economic Union and raised the possibility of cutting off the cheap energy supplies that keep the Armenian economy functional. Putin, at the EAEU summit in Astana, which Pashinyan conspicuously did not attend, drew explicit parallels between Armenia and Ukraine. The message was precise and familiar: this is what happens to countries that choose the wrong direction. Analysts tracking the election have noted that Russia is employing influence operations similar to those used earlier in Moldova and Georgia, a systematic effort to shape Armenia's political and information environment from outside its borders.

The Trump endorsement is genuinely unusual. Trump has backed Viktor Orbán in Hungary and pro-Kremlin forces across Russia's neighbourhood. Pashinyan is the exception — not because Trump has become a champion of liberal democracy in the South Caucasus but because American energy companies need the corridor Armenia would provide. The Trump Route is not a foreign policy vision. It is a pipeline pitch with a flag attached.

The election on Sunday is not genuinely competitive. Pashinyan's support has fallen to around 32 per cent among all respondents, rising to 38 per cent among likely voters, a sharp decline from his post-revolution highs. But the opposition is weaker and more divided. Three main blocs challenge Civil Contract: the Strong Armenia alliance, backed by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan; the Armenia Alliance led by former President Robert Kocharyan, who advocates deeper ties with Russia; and the Prosperous Armenia party. Among decided voters Civil Contract leads with nearly 65 per cent. Pashinyan is an unpopular frontrunner running against an opposition that cannot agree on what it wants except to reverse the direction he has set.

What is genuinely competitive is the pressure being applied to the country from both sides simultaneously. Russia is threatening its gas. Washington is offering a corridor. Neither is asking what Armenia actually needs. The country is three million people, landlocked, historically besieged and now the object of superpower attention not because the superpowers care about Armenia but because Armenia sits between things they want.

The choice Armenia faces on Sunday is not really between Pashinyan and his opponents. It is between two kinds of dependency, one of which has stopped pretending to be a partnership.

The Trump Route will transform the South Caucasus, Trump said. Armenia, which has survived three decades of blockade, one genocide in living memory and two wars over the same mountain enclave, will be transformed whether it wants to be or not. The superpowers have decided. The corridor must be built.