On Wednesday, Trump posted his formula on Truth Social. 'From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran.' One ship attack. One piece of Iranian civilian infrastructure. Including Tehran. On the same day, Trump flew to Dover Air Force Base to attend the dignified transfer of four American service members killed in the war.
The problem with this is not the threat. The problem is the arithmetic.
Trump's formula converts deterrence into a pricing mechanism. Iran's military commanders can now calculate: is attacking a commercial vessel worth one bridge? Is disrupting shipping worth one power plant? Iran has attacked more than 30 commercial vessels since the war began in February, according to US military estimates. Thirty attacks. Thirty bridges or power plants, by Trump's formula. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has done this maths. It has concluded that the exchange rate is acceptable. The formula was announced to make ship attacks too costly to continue. It has instead told Iran precisely what each ship attack costs and invited Tehran to decide whether the price is right.
This is not a new threat. In March, Trump gave Iran 48 hours to open the Strait or face obliteration of its power plants. The 48 hours passed. In April, he announced 'Power Plant Day' with a Tuesday deadline. On the Sunday before that Tuesday he posted: 'Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran.' Then: 'A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.' The civilisation did not die. The formula was updated, the deadline was extended and the threat was renewed. Iran's military planners have now watched this pattern three times. What they have learned is that the formula has a walk-back built into it. The threat travels to Tehran. The bombs, so far, have not.
The formula also has a legal dimension the White House has not addressed. International humanitarian law prohibits intentional attacks on civilian infrastructure. Agnès Callamard, Secretary General of Amnesty International, said in April that targeting Iranian power plants 'could amount to a war crime' under international humanitarian law, noting that 'power plants, water systems and energy infrastructure are indispensable to civilian life, underpinning access to clean water, medical care, hospital electricity, food supply chains, and basic livelihoods.' Their destruction causes blackouts that kill patients in hospitals, shut down water treatment and collapse food supply chains. Trump's formula — one power plant per ship attack — describes, in writing, an act that international law prohibits. The same administration dismantling the ICC is publishing its war crimes schedule on Truth Social.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to the formula by mirroring it. 'Our defense doctrine is clear: eye for an eye. Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response. Those who contribute to such aggression, whatever the kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets.' Iran's IRGC warned that US strikes on Iranian infrastructure would produce 'power outages in other countries in the region that are US allies.' The threat is symmetrical. Trump offered a formula. Iran returned one. Tehran and Washington are now negotiating via infrastructure.
DiploPolis reported on July 17 that Iran had already told the Houthis to stand ready to close Bab el-Mandeb if the US bombed Iranian power infrastructure. That warning is now the standing response to the standing threat. The chain is complete and public: Trump announces formula. Iran announces mirror formula. Houthis prepare to execute the final link. The escalation has been published in full.
Axios reported that Trump is simultaneously considering both a ceasefire and a significant military escalation. Both are live options. The formula and the ceasefire consideration coexist. This is not contradiction in Trump's political logic — it is the same dual-track that has governed the entire war. Bomb and negotiate. Threaten and offer. The formula is the stick. The ceasefire is the carrot. The problem is that after three months, Iran has learned that the stick has a consistent walk-back and the carrot has conditions Tehran will not accept.
Iran attacked 30 ships. Washington destroyed some bridges in the south. Trump announced a formula naming Tehran. Iran said eye for an eye. The formula has been running for three months. The Strait is still closed.
Trump set the price. Iran decided it was worth paying.
