Donald Trump has notified Congress that the Iran war has been 'terminated' under the War Powers Resolution, the legal mechanism requiring him to halt military operations within 60 days of their commencement unless legislators authorise the conflict to continue. On the same day, the US Navy announced it would begin guiding commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, deploying guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft and 15,000 service members. A tanker was struck by unknown projectiles in the strait hours later. Iran's senior official Ebrahim Azizi called the naval escort plan a violation of the ceasefire.
The war is terminated. The Navy is deploying. A vessel was hit. The ceasefire is being violated. All of this happened on the same day.
The War Powers Resolution notification is a legal formality with significant political consequences. By telling Congress the war is terminated, Trump satisfies the 60-day clock and avoids a congressional vote he may not win. What he does not do is end the conflict. The blockade of Iranian ports continues. Iran's 14-point proposal sits unresolved on the negotiating table. The nuclear question — the stated cause of the war — remains entirely open. JPMorgan Chase analysts estimate that OECD oil inventories will begin running out between May 9 and May 30. The war is terminated on paper. In the Strait of Hormuz it is running on schedule.
There is something worth understanding about the legal architecture Trump has used. The War Powers Resolution was passed in 1973 specifically to prevent presidents from conducting indefinite military operations without congressional authorisation. Its termination notification clause was designed to signal the end of hostilities, not to provide legal cover for their continuation under a different operational description. What Trump has done is use the mechanism designed to constrain executive war-making as a tool to sustain it. The war is over because he said so. The Navy is still there because he said so. Both statements are simultaneously true.
Iran submitted a 14-point proposal to Pakistan for onward transmission to Washington on Saturday. Trump said on Truth Social that he was reviewing it and that discussions were 'very positive'. On the same Truth Social account, 24 hours earlier, he had written that he 'could not imagine' Iran's proposal would be acceptable because Iran had 'not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity'. The proposal had not changed between Saturday and Sunday. Trump's description of it had. This is not diplomacy. It is mood management at the expense of everyone trying to understand what Washington actually wants.
The first Japanese oil tanker to transit the Strait of Hormuz since February 28 completed its crossing on Sunday. The Idemitsu Maru's passage was confirmed by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. One tanker. Sixty-five days after the strait closed. The cost of that crossing — in insurance premiums, naval escort fees, diplomatic capital, economic damage and human life — will be calculated for years. The reopening of the strait is not a sign that the crisis is over. It is a sign that one government was desperate enough to attempt the passage and one navy was prepared to protect it for reasons of its own.
The war that Trump has declared terminated has killed, according to preliminary figures, 3,375 people in Iran and 2,509 in Lebanon. The Pentagon's comptroller told Congress the cost of US operations has reached $25 billion. American petrol prices stand at $4.45 a gallon, up 49 per cent since February 28. None of these numbers change because a legal notification was filed.
A war ends when both sides have agreed it is over. One side's paperwork is not a peace. It is a filing.
Find this piece interesting?
Dispatches by DiploPolis delivers sharp analysis and pointed commentary on power, politics, diplomacy, and world affairs — directly to your inbox.
No neutrality. No noise. Just argument.
