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# Vance: No Evidence. Trump: I Personally Believe It.
- URL: https://www.diplopolis.com/vance-no-evidence-trump-personally-believes-flydubai-iran-attribution/
- Published: 2026-10-07T04:30:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-09T19:43:15.000Z
- Description: Vance said no conclusive evidence ties Iran to the flydubai attack. Trump said he personally believes Iran was responsible. Same administration, same day. Netanyahu said Iran did it. Iran said nothing. The UAE investigation has produced no formal motive. Three assessments, three purposes.
- Author: Sunny Peter
- Tags: The Ledger, Middle East, United States, Iran, Israel, Iran war, Accountability, Intelligence, US Politics

[JD Vance told Reuters on Monday that he had not seen anything conclusive tying Iran to the flydubai attack](https://www.outlookindia.com/international/trump-says-iran-behind-flydubai-incident-jd-vance-says-no-conclusive-link-yet?ref=diplopolis.com). On the same day, Donald Trump told reporters he personally believes Iran was responsible. Both men were speaking as officials of the same government, having presumably received the same intelligence briefings. The US position on whether Iran directed an Omani copilot to attempt to crash a plane full of Israelis is, depending on which official you asked on Monday: insufficient evidence, or personal conviction. These are not the same thing. The administration appears not to have noticed the difference.

The divergence is not simply political awkwardness, though it is that too. The flydubai investigation is being led by the UAE, not the United States. The central question, whether al-Hammami acted alone, on behalf of an extremist group, or at the direction of a foreign state, determines how the incident is classified, prosecuted and responded to internationally. If the UAE investigation establishes Iranian state direction, it is a state-sponsored terror attack on a civilian aircraft during an active war. If it establishes a lone actor, it is a different category of event with different implications for the bilateral negotiations that, as of last week, both Washington and Tehran were describing as either rejected or meaningless. The distinction matters. The US Vice President and the US President do not agree on it.

Netanyahu announced on Monday, at a [ceremony marking the October 7 anniversary](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog%5Fentry/netanyahu-at-oct-7-ceremony-we-will-settle-scores-with-everyone-involved-in-attacks/?ref=diplopolis.com), that the war's achievements included striking ballistic missile stores inside Iran, hitting its nuclear programme hard, and eliminating scientists, sites and infrastructure. He did not address reports that he had ignored pre-October 7 warnings from Egypt. He attributed the flydubai attack to Iranian indoctrination and Iran's regional network. He is the third official giving a third assessment of the same event, for a third purpose. Netanyahu faces elections on October 27\. His assessment of Iranian culpability is not an intelligence conclusion: it is a campaign document.

Iran's response came through Pezeshkian, who told reporters this week that talks with the United States are meaningless. He did not address the flydubai attack directly. Not addressing it is itself a posture: Iran neither confirms nor denies involvement in operations it does not formally claim. Silence is not innocence. It is also not guilt. The investigation is in Abu Dhabi and has produced neither a formal motive nor a formal state connection. Meanwhile, the US Vice President says no evidence. The US President says personal conviction. The Israeli Prime Minister says Iran did it. Iran says nothing. The plane is still in Tabuk. The election is in three weeks.